Seasons meetings.

I’m baaaa-aack!  Happy holidays and apologies for the lengthy break.  I’ve been enjoying the off-season a little too much.  Now that the Bucks have snapped the Warriors’ 24-0 winning streak, I figure I’d better get back to business and start padding my accounts for the New Year.  Christmas vacation already got me like…

With this exciting NFL season coming to a close, (cue image of me staring at my boyfriend while he stares into his phone/laptop/TV screen), I’m shaking things up a bit and going big on tonight’s Giants (-1) @ Dolphins matchup.  New York has lost five games this season by surrendering leads within the last two minutes… seriously.  Tom Coughlin’s response last Monday was, “We’ll win when we deserve to win.”  Super deep doable since Miami ranks 20^th in the league in scoring and 27^th in yards per game.  Miami’s corners are pretty suspect and their run defense is mediocre.  So long as their patched-together offensive line holds up, there should be plenty of opportunities for New York to get it done here… at least for the first 58 minutes.

The Clippers are favored (-2) against Detroit, and though the Pistons seem to be tapping into their potential, they’ve already endured a 96-101 loss at the hands of the Chris Paul-less Clips back in November.  Andre Drummond is perhaps the only guy in the NBA shooting free throws worse than DeAndre Jordan, but he also has 10 games of 18 or more rebounds already this season.  While I’d love nothing more than to see the Pistons crush Doc Rivers and his whiny squad – I’m putting my money on Chris and Blake improving their two-man game.

Toronto (+5) heads to Indiana in the hopes of adding to their four-game winning streak.   The Raptors (16-9) have been led by DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging over 20 points per game, while also managing 4 rebounds and 4 assists.  Also of note is the smooth play of Kyle Lowry, who has emerged as one of the top point guards in the league, posting 20+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 5+ assists averages this year.  During a recent stretch, Indiana gave up 120 points or more in three consecutive games (all losses), only to put a forceful end to that on Friday when they held the Heat to a mere 83 points.  Just when it looked like Indiana had figured out the defensive side of the ball, the Pistons picked them apart, hitting 50 percent of their field goals en route to a 22-point victory Saturday night.

Moral of the story?  Detroit can beat Indiana but can’t beat LA and Toronto beat the Spurs last week so obvs they can beat Indiana.

For my Streak bets:

• Nets over Magic – straight across.
• Odell Beckham Jr. recording more receptions in the first half than Jarvis Landry.

Best of luck to all you bettors out there, and remember… there’s only 11 more days until the most exciting day of the year – that’s right, Cavs/Warriors rematch!!!  Let’s do this!

Back in action.

First and foremost, WELCOME BACK!  With baseball season over (for me), I can finally give my full attention to sitting back, relaxing, and screaming at the TV again- GOD I’VE MISSED THIS.  I’m testing out a few new betting strategies and hoping to provide you all with a little more method to my madness.  Our theme this year?  More systems = more money.  Don’t worry, there will still be plenty of trash talking and weekly updates.  And, of course..

Basically, we’re keeping our eyes peeled for profitable trends to parlay into systems that will serve as a road map for future bets.  Think: the Hawks last season pre-finals and DOUBLE IT.  I’d be lying if I said that my first few weeks of NFL bets haven’t shaken me to the core.  Lessons learned?  STOP BETTING ON YOUR TEAM.  Also, stop telling people the Niners are your team.. at least in public.  Go Raiders?

Alright, so let’s jump right in and talk bets for NFL Week 5 –

Tonight’s Monday Night Football match-up – Detroit @ Seattle (-10):

Seattle leads the NFL with 9,687 rushing yards since 2011 and has a 14-game streak of gaining at least 100 yards rushing as a team.  This is exactly what we’ll see tonight against Detroit starting with the Rawls/Lynch factor.  If Lynch plays, Rawls should get around 70-80 and a score.  If Lynch doesn’t play, I’m predicting 120-plus rushing yards and two scores.  Either way – kid’s a mini BEAST.  DGAF Seattle and my true interest lies in watching Ameer Abdullah finally break out, but my money’s on Detroit falling 0-5 tonight.

For my ESPN Streak bet – I have a field goal, safety, or no score as the first scoring play of the 3rd Quarter (over touchdown).

Thursday night’s AFC South match-up – Indianapolis @ Houston (odds STILL not posted):

Andrew Luck is back.  Veteran Matt Hasselback filled in for Luck’s first ever missed career game Sunday, where the Colts pulled a 16-13 win in OT against Jacksonville.  The Colts are most likely favored and have fared 2-2 so far this season but something is definitely off.  Luck has struggled to complete 56% of his passes and thrown seven interceptions in three games.  He also hasn’t had much help from the running game.  Frank Gore is averaging just 56.8 yards per game and is about to kill your fantasy buzz if he doesn’t start remembering how to hang on to the ball like he did when he bled red and gold.

Houston’s defense is nothing to sleep on… unless you put on Hard Knocks after two glasses of wine.  Linebacker Brian Cushing leads the league in tackles (32 in 4 games) after Sunday’s loss to the Falcons.  Brian Hoyer starting at QB in Week 1 told you pretty much everything you need to know about him being the best they’ve had in several years.  He’s nothing special under center, but he’s a more-than-capable game manager who’s learned most of what he knows from Pats QB Tom Brady (barf).  True to form, Bill O’Brien announced this morning that backup QB Ryan Mallett, who was pulled from the 42-0 game on Sunday against Atlanta, will start on Thursday.  Between their QB carousel and long list of injuries, Houston is struggling to turn a corner.  I feel like it’s coming though, and I’m leaning towards putting my money on JJ Watt and the rag-tag Texans getting NRG Stadium up and on its feet (especially if Luck’s out).*

*We’ll see how quickly I change my mind once the lines go up.  Stay tuned!

For the start of this weekend’s Sacred Sunday match-ups, I’ve parlayed Baltimore (-6.5) over Cleveland with Kansas City (-9.5) over Chicago:

The Browns are coming off an emotional and exciting 26-24 last second win against New Orleans in Week 2.  Baltimore is coming off a dominant 23-20 win against the Steelers on Thursday night, giving them an extra three days off to prep for this game.  Cleveland has a chance to make a statement that they belong in the AFC North, while the Ravens have a chance to show that this division belongs to them (or the Bengals).  Baltimore stuffed Pittsburgh pretty well last Sunday.  Let’s hope they can get it done again at home this weekend.

I’m laughing as I type this because it’s just so easy to bet against DA BEARS.  But touche’ Chicago, you beat the new-and-improved Raiders yesterday so maybe anything’s possible.  Except beating the Chiefs in Week 5.  As long as Alex Smith stays upright, the Chiefs will get it done.

More Sacred Sunday bets to follow on Friday.  Best of luck to all you bettors out there.  And remember all you whiny Cleveland fans, there’s a word for almost winning – losing.  Let’s do this!

Love the game.

Hi there!  So we’re doing things a little differently today.  Instead of betting Golden State (-10) over Houston (I know, I’m lame), I’m just going to windbag for a minute.  Since my life is basically all sports (and wine) now, I can legitimately talk about little else.  At least until the playoffs are over.  And let’s be real, obviously all wine is delicious.  So here is a preview of my thoughts and predictions for the final NBA match-up series: Cleveland vs. Golden State.  Bets to follow, I promise.. and sincere apologies if you DGAF straight basketball talk.  Also, why are we friends?

First, let’s talk Lebron.  Love him or hate him, chances are you have lots to say about King James and even a little more to say after that.  I read an interesting take this morning as I was trolling through the comments on SportCenter’s Instagram pics getting fired up for Game 5 (don’t judge me).  It read, “Stop comparing players to players of the past and just appreciate them for their own game!!!”  Super deep for Insta, right?  I know.  But it got me thinking about rivalries and how heated everyone gets when comparing their own guy to Lebron, Kobe, Curry, and well.. Kobe.  Even though I’m a Steph Curry fan all the way, I love Lebron’s story.  Anyone who appreciates the game has to give it up for the way he plays- plain and simple.  He’s a basketball god.  He defies everything and has won it all.  He’s left his hometown in search of glory and returned eight years later- the prodigal son with a couple of titles and a lot of humility.  I dig it.  And when I hear people say that he’s a sellout or a traitor, I’m disappointed in their lack of reverence for the game.  No one can say a player has to stay or go.  The beauty of the game is that the players make it.  They make their own stories and blaze their own trails.  Some fail to keep it together, while others are blessed with perfect timing and the alignment of stellar teammates around them. Oh, and insane, unrivaled talent.  The point is, there’s no room for absolute loyalty in the game of basketball.  You can hate James Harden, but you can’t deny that he’s a beast who will fuck your team up.  Ok, Lebron rant over.

Obviously I think the Dubs are going to crush this series.  But I can’t help but get a little excited to watch Lebron bring another playoff run back to Cleveland.  Also, how much mouthguard chewing is going to be happening??  While the Cavs have had an impressive defensive run throughout the playoffs thus far, they’ve yet to face the quality of opponent and offense they’ll face with Golden State.  The Warriors have feasted on opponents who’ve had little answers for their quick hands, deep shots, and dominant blocks.  The Cavs have done an impressive job of putting up high numbers this season, but their continued winning streak is beginning to seem as unlikely as Kevin Love actually showing up to watch them play.  Even with Tristan Thompson doing his part to keep the offense alive with his rebounding, going up against the fifth best 3-point defense in the league will be a little sketchier than sweeping the Hawks.  This is where Lebron’s passing ability off a dribble becomes key.  I see a lot of back and forth happening here and I like it.  The Warriors are the most accurate team from downtown in the NBA and obviously Lebron is Lebron so there will be no more shutting down above average scorers without having to worry about a singular focus (*cough cough* Atlanta).  All in all, despite Lebron’s masterful performance and the second-best offense in the league, the Cavs are destined to be the underdog of this series.  Sorry Cavs fans, maybe next year!  Thanks a million for letting me get some of this aggression out before Game 5 tonight.  My boyfriend owes you a beer.  Until next week..  Let’s do this!

Be Easy.

Howdy and Happy Friday!  Don’t worry, I didn’t have a complete mental breakdown after yesterday’s tournament kick off.  Although I am still on suicide watch after ISU’s loss to UAB.  KIDDING!  They let me off this morning.  But seriously, I’m excited to get into tonight’s NBA bets because for one, they have absolutely nothing to do with March Madness, and two, they’re a little more predictable.  For starters, I’ve got ATL (+1) over OKC and Cleveland (-11) over Indiana.

Atlanta’s road trip is coming to a close tonight, which I guess is why OKC is favored?  The Thunder leads New Orleans by one game entering tonight’s match-up thanks in large part to an MVP performance by Russell Westbrook.  OKC has been straight ravaged by injuries this season and will be without two members of their big three against the Hawks.  Earlier in the week there was some talk that Durant might be able to make it back for tonight’s game but he sat out Thursday’s practice due to lingering soreness in his foot and was declared out for this match.  Serge Ibaka had a knee procedure earlier this week and could miss the remainder of the season.  That big IF is definitely testing the Thunder’s depth and placing even more weight on the shoulders of Westbrook.  The newly acquired Enes Kanter has averaged more than 20 points with 12 rebounds over his last six games but suffered an ankle injury of his own Wednesday, missing practice on Thursday.  His status for tonight’s game won’t be determined until sometime before tip off.  The Hawks are dealing with injuries of their own.  Tonight, they will be without Kyle Korver for the third straight game due to a broken nose, while Mike Scott is also still out with a broken toe.  As I’m writing this I’m reading an update on my phone that says Kanter’s out tonight.  Nuff said, go Hawks!

I’m picking the Cavs (-11) over the Pacers for two reasons- Cleveland’s on a tear and I’m not totally insane.  The Cavs (44-26) have won a season-high 14 straight games at Quicken Loans Arena, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points (108.0-91.6).  It is their longest home streak since Feb.11 to April 12, 2009 (16 straight home wins).  The Cavs have also won by double figures in 13 of their last 14 games at The Q, including each of the last nine, tying their franchise-record of nine straight double-digit home wins set from Nov.13  to Dec. 12, 2008.  Cleveland’s defense has held opponents to an average of 91.6 points on .400 shooting during those 14 straight home wins.  Do I even need to talk about Indiana here?  The Pacers last two losses have come by a combined 36 points, including a 103-86 defeat in Chicago on Wednesday against the Bulls.  The last time they played in Cleveland was Nov. 29 when the Cavs defeated them 109-97.  The Cavs actually trail the all-time series against the Pacers 84-92 (54-35 Home, 30-57 Road) but somehow I don’t think they’ll be trailing tonight.

I also want to throw some money on the Bucks (+2) over Brooklyn tonight.  Something’s gotta give here with Milwaukee, and Jason Kidd needs his swagger back.  Kidd has won all five times he’s coached this match-up, going 44-38 reaching  the second round of the playoffs last season with Brooklyn, going 3-0 against Milwaukee along the way.  He sought more power within the organization, paving the way for general manager Billy King to deal him to the Bucks for second-round draft picks in 2015 and 2019 on June 30.  Ouch.  Kidd was loudly booed and taunted as a traitor Nov. 19 in his return to the borough when Milwaukee (34-34) won 122-118 in triple overtime.  The Nets have dropped eight of their last 10 at home against the Bucks, who haven’t been under .500 since they were 15-16 on Dec. 27.  The Bucks just beat Brooklyn 103-97 at home on Feb. 9 and I NEED to see this happen again!  Not really a huge J. Kidd fan but my boyfriend waited on him a few years ago and said he was chill so I’m pulling for him here.  Come on Milwaukee, do it for the ratchets!

https://youtu.be/VDiJNGmwfe0

Tonight will surely be better than last night with the added distraction of my NBA bets sprinkled over my inevitable rage cage.  And hey, at least my bracket’s looking a little less bloody than my brother’s.  Best of luck to all you bettors out there, and remember… it’s just a game (if you lose).  Let’s do this!

MARCH MADNESS Breakdown.

HEY-O and Happy Almost Tourney-Day!  Yeah… I just made up an entire day.  I was hoping I could just attach my bracket to this post but it isn’t letting me so I will go over my picks by region and reiterate my Final Four picks before posting my championship match-up and final score prediction.  But first, tonight’s NBA analysis is very exciting for me because my two favorite teams are facing off in Oakland!  That’s right baby, Dubs vs. Hawks!!!  My money’s on the Warriors (-6.5), who are favored tonight and have already clinched a playoff spot (OBVIES!).  This game will most definitely be a playoff preview but means little for either team in the big picture.  Both the Hawks and the Warriors hold sizable leads in their respective conferences and have fared well against each other in the past.  But, there is a certain buzz around this match-up and while the loser will simply shake it off as a meaningless regular season game, the winner will likely garner a bit of confidence should the two teams meet in the Finals.  Both teams will be without a star, the Dubs without Thompson and the Hawks without Korver.  Golden State has lost just two home games all season so it will be yet another test for the Hawks who’ve grown accustomed to acing it.  Cant wait to see some of this..

Now for the obsession that has become my life- my NCAA tournament bracket.  The road to the Final Four lays outstretched in front of 68 teams, some of them destined to cut down the net, others to fall from grace.  So let’s get into some regional break-downs:

The West:  For my money, the West is the toughest region this season if we ignore the Midwest’s ‘Kentucky Factor.’  With Wisconsin as the No. 1 and Arizona as the No. 2, there isn’t going to be much room for upsets on the top seed line, which is bad news for North Carolina and Baylor, two teams that certainly have Final Four potential.  My second round teams are:  Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, UNC, Xavier, Baylor, Ohio State, and Arizona.  Third round picks include:  Wisconsin, UNC, Baylor, and Arizona.  For this region, it all comes down to Wisconsin and Arizona and I’m sending Wisconsin to the Final Four to face UK.  I want to talk about UNC for a minute, because of course I do.  The Heels come into this tournament as a dangerous bunch, capable of beating almost anybody.  They had Duke beat at Cameron a month ago, before letting that one slip away and are in the tournament as an at-large after finishing in fifth place in the ACC this season before advancing to the finals of the conference tournament, where they lost to Notre Dame.  Surely they will lose to Wisconsin, but they’ll be one of the hottest teams to watch.

The Midwest:  The Quest is fulfilled.  Big Blue nirvana attained.  The program that has everything but an undefeated national champion goes 40-0, checking the last box on the all-time checklist.  Everyone and their mom (especially mine) knows that the Wildcats are going BIG this year.  My second round teams are: Kentucky, Purdue, West Virginia, Maryland, Texas, Notre Dame, Wichita State, and Kansas.  Third round picks include Kentucky, Maryland, Notre Dame, and Kansas.  For this region, it all comes down to Kentucky and Kansas and I’m sending UK to the Final Four to face the Badgers.  I’ve had some people ask about my West Virginia/Maryland match-up so here it is- West Virginia and Maryland pit two great guards against each other (Juwan Staten vs. Melo Trimble) but ultimately Maryland wants it more.  The Terrapins are coming off a four-year drought and will be looking to showcase their dominance against exclusive competition in an elite conference.  In other words, get ready for the Melo & Dez show!

The East:  This is probably the least emotional/interesting region for me, save for Northern Iowa and Wyoming upset.  The Panthers only lost three games all season, and two of them came against tourney teams (VCU and Wichita State).  Defensively, they’re ranked 16th in the country.  So, why is Wyoming so compelling?  The inside-outside combo of Larry Nance Jr. and Josh Adams.  They’ll slow it down, ugly the game up and keep it close for at least 35 minutes.  Basically, this game is life.  My second round teams are:  Villanova, NC State, Wyoming, Louisville, BSU/Dayton, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Virginia.  Third round picks include NC State, Louisville, Oklahoma, and Michigan State.  Yes, I have Michigan State beating Virginia.  MSU derailed Virginia’s tournament hopes a year ago in the Sweet Sixteen and they’ll do it again in Round Two.  Even if the Cavaliers have taken another step forward during the past 12 months, the Spartans’ style of play isn’t at odds with Virginia’s slow-it-down approach.  For this region, it all comes down to Michigan State and Louisville and I have the Spartans going to the Final Four to face Iowa State.

The South:  Duke earned themselves a semi-surprising No. 1 seed in the South Region, playing their first two games of the event in Charlotte. There was some talk that the Blue Devils would not be on the top seed line after losing to Notre Dame in the semifinals of the ACC tournament and given the fact that they won no ACC titles, but Duke did enough damage on the road during the year to deserve this spot.  All hate aside, I’m excited to watch this play out.  My second round teams are:  Duke, San Diego State, Utah, Eastern Washington, SMU, Iowa State, Davidson, and Gonzaga.  My third round picks include Duke, Utah, Iowa State, and Gonzaga.  For this region, it all comes down to Utah and ISU and I’ve got the Cyclones going to the Final Four to beat Michigan State.  Yeah, I’ve been jocking the Cyclones for most of the season but this team is money.  Georges Niang (15.5 ppg, 5.4 rgp, 3.5 apg) is the team’s go-to guy, and he’s one of the toughest match-ups in the country.  At 6-8, 230 pounds, Niang can back you down and score inside.  But he’s also an adept passer and can shoot the 3 at 40.2%.  ISU, I’ve got your back, even if Obama snubbed you.

My final prediction for the BIG game in Indianapolis:  Iowa State falls to Kentucky 69-74.

The NCAA tournament has given us so many greats- Steph Curry, Dunk City, and the genius of Brad Stevens.  I only wish we could buy it a beer!  Best of luck to all you bettors out there, and remember… if you’re having a hard time thinking or talking about anything other than your picks, upsets, or bracket, congratulations you’re not a failure at life.  Let’s do this!

Bracketology.

It’s the most wonderful tiiiiime of the year.  No, not Christmas… MARCH MADNESS!!!  I am just a tiny bit excited to get into all things tourney-related this week, and of course to try and redeem myself/whoop my brother’s ass in our annual bracket pool.  Also, if you haven’t caught any of ESPN’s 30 for 30 Shorts, do yourself a favor and start with last night’s I Hate Christian Laettner.  Yeah, he’s a douche, but Laettner is the game.  This unprecedented documentary series features today’s finest directors and storytellers from inside and outside of the sports world and is definitely a must watch.  Also, this..

https://youtu.be/J3_IT622Sbc

Don’t get it twisted, I still hate Duke.  This obsession is Laettner specific.

For my NBA picks tonight, I have ATL (-5) over Sacramento and Toronto (+5) over Indiana. The Hawks are well on their way to earning the Eastern Conference’s top seed, giving coach Mike Budenholzer the luxury of resting key players down the stretch.  Kyle Korver gets tonight’s spot on the bench after breaking his nose on Ed Davis’ screen last night in LA, as Atlanta continues seeking a 14th straight win over Sacramento.  The Hawks (52-14) lead the East by 10 games over Cleveland after last night’s 91-86 win against the Lakers in their third stop on the six-game swing.  Budenholzer sat starters Jeff Teague, DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap, while Dennis Schroder scored a career-high 24 points and tied a personal best with 10 assists in a rare start.  Needless to say, the Hawks are soaring.

During the past month or so, the Pacers have been playing some pretty decent team basketball on both ends of the court.  Recently, however, they’ve experienced some major issues with turnovers.  After not committing even 15 turnovers in 18 straight games, Indiana has coughed up the ball 37 times over their last two contests.  Indiana head coach Frank Vogel gave much of the credit for that alarming statistic to the lengthy and talented defenses of both the Bucks and Celtics.  Boston and Milwaukee aside, the Pacers need to figure out a way to take better control of the ball this week, especially if they hope to cinch a W against Toronto tonight.  The Raptors remain tied for third place in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve stumbled as of late, dropping 10 of their last 12 games dating back to a 106-103 loss to Portland in early February.  Backcourt duo DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are doing their part, hitting a combed average of just over 37 points, eight rebounds, and 10 assists per game.  Sorry Indiana, Toronto’s coming back!  Let’s just hope they fare a little better than their mascot last night..

Whew!  Now we can really get into the madness that is March.  The pressure and emotion involved in the high-prestige, single-elimination tournament produce some head-scratching, intriguing, and mind-blowing results- especially when a little-known school knocks off a powerhouse.  In the past three years, seven teams seeded between No. 13 and No. 15 have eliminated teams seeded between No. 2 and No. 4.  It’s no longer a question of whether a major upset will occur, but a question of which favorites will fall.  Here’s two major upset predictions:

South: (13) Eastern Washington over (4) Georgetown- Eastern Washington is third in the nation in scoring and is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 40.3 percent of its shots from beyond the arc. Guard Tyler Harvey is the nation’s leading scorer at 22.9 points a game, hitting 42.8 percent of his three-point attempts.  If he gets hot from the perimeter, the Eagles have a shot.

East: (12) Wyoming over (5) Northern Iowa- Wyoming is on a roll, and teams with that kind of momentum are dangerous in the postseason.  Forward Larry Nance Jr. is a versatile player who can affect the game in a number of ways, and has been hailed as college basketball’s best dunker.  Wyoming was less effective when he missed four games in February because of mononucleosis, but he is back at full strength, and the Cowboys are better because of it.  Here’s to some Like Mike action!

The left side of this year’s bracket has the two best teams in college basketball- Kentucky and Wisconsin.  Wisconsin is a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history, but the Badgers must play in the West Region where second-seeded Arizona is certain to draw more fans.  Wisconsin and Kentucky will be the greatest match up of the entire season, should both teams meet in the Final Four.  More on the left side (especially UNC) tomorrow.

The right side of the bracket is.. umm shall we say, interesting?  It has a vulnerable one seed in Villanova, vulnerable two seeds in Virginia and Gonzaga, and most importantly, it has a three-seed that’s been mowing every other team down.  I tried talking myself out of picking the Cyclones to take down Duke and Villanova/Michigan State multiple times, but alas, it’s a seemingly undeniable path for a team that’s simply playing its best basketball of the entire year RIGHT NOW.  The Cyclones have looked like one of the best teams in the nation since the beginning of March, with two wins over Oklahoma and one each over Kansas and Texas.  And even if you don’t think the Cyclones can knock off Gonzaga, Duke, and make a run, you should still root for them to, because they’re one of the most exciting teams in the nation.  My prediction for the right side is Michigan State vs. Iowa State.  But more on the right side tomorrow.

If you’re still doing a deep dive on which teams to pick for your bracket, here’s a pretty helpful site that breaks things down in terms of percentages:

2014 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Stay tuned for more tips on building the perfect bracket and other random tournament shenanigans!  Happy March Madness!!!  Best of luck to all you bettors out there, and remember… not all roads to the Final Four are paved evenly.  Let’s do this!

#BEATLA

Happy Hump Day and a VERY HAPPY BIRTHDAY to Draymond Green!  Harrison Barnes posted this amazing shot on his Facebook page this morning…

So much awesomeness in one photo, I can barely handle it.  Is Dray a UNC fan??  Did he lose a bet?  Hopefully this means he’ll be lucky tonight against the Bucks!

For my first NBA pick, I have the Miami Heat (-9.5) over the Los Angeles Lakers.  Tonight, the Heat will try and sweep another two-game series for the fifth straight season against LA.  Miami’s been struggling but still somehow find themselves in the running for an Eastern Conference playoff spot, hanging on to the No. 7 position with only 23 games left.  Of the Heat’s starting five lineup on opening night, only Wade and Deng remain in the mix.  Miami’s center, Hasson Whiteside, was turned down by basically every other team in the NBA but has essentially become an overnight success with the Heat.  The leading scorer in Monday’s 115-98 win over Phoenix, Tyler Johnson, entered the night with a mere 64 points in his NBA career.  The team’s two most recent additions, Henry Walker and Michael Beasley, are playing with no guarantees past next week.  So strange has become normal for Miami, and hopefully that helps tonight against the Lakers, who’ve lost two in a row after a rare three-game winning streak, falling 104-103 at Charlotte on Tuesday.  Jeremy Lin scored a game-high 23 points, as Nick Young sat sidelined for the third consecutive game due to a sore left knee. Young is listed as questionable tonight, with Nash, Price, Bryant, and Randall out for sure.  Bosh and McRoberts are still sidelined for Miami, and Dragic’s shoulder is still questionable.  It’s gonna be a rag-tag game!!!

For my next NBA pick, I’ve gotta go with Houston (-3) over Memphis.  The Rockets will be looking to redeem themselves after crumbling late in Atlanta last night AND they will actually have James Harden, which is key since he’s like, really good.  Houston is ranked 3^rd in the West, just 1.5 games behind 42-17 Memphis, and won the previous match-up by 6 points in overtime.  Harden will be checked by Tony Allen tonight, who was also suspended for Memphis’ brutal 93-82 loss to the Jazz last night.  The Grizzlies were also without Zach Randolph against Utah, but the double-double machine is back averaging 16.5 points and 11.7 rebounds per game.  This match-up will definitely be a close call.  Just hopefully not this close…

http://youtu.be/GfYXkSAW1LM

For NCAA, I’m going with Oklahoma State (-8) over TCU.  OK State is ending its regular season in a tailspin for the second straight time and a home loss to TCU tonight would severely hinder its chances at an NCAA Tournament bid.  After back-to-back wins over ranked Kansas and Baylor, the Cowboys have lost four straight- a slide that began with a 15-point setback at TCU on February 14.  They had a seven-game losing streak late last season before coming back strong and sneaking into the NCAAs as a No. 9 seed.  The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in foul shots, hitting 75.7 percent while TCU is ranked last shooting 59.2.  The Horned Frogs have lost 21 of 24 all-time meetings, with their only win in Stillwater in… wait for it… 1925!!!

For my Streak pick, I have the Jazz over the Celtics straight across.

Best of luck to all you bettors out there, and remember… it’s almost (the real) baseball season and March Madness is only 11 days away!!!

Let’s do this!

Rocket Man.

Happy Hump Day!  So many games, so little time to figure out which bet is the least sketchy.  For my first NBA pick, I have the Houston Rockets (-3.5) over the Los Angeles Clippers.  First off, if you haven’t already read the below article by Gary Vasquez, do it.  He’s throwing some major shade at James Harden and let’s just say he buys his Haterade at Costco:

http://www.thedreamshake.com/2015/2/25/8105063/houston-rockets-vs-los-angeles-clippers-game-preview

As much as I love Harden, I was pretty entertained by this piece but also convinced that he’s gotta come out swinging tonight against LA.  Seven straight losses to the Clipshow?  Come on MVP, you got this.  The NBA Playoffs are still two months out, but if the season ended today the Clippers and Rockets would most definitely meet in the first round.  The problem is both teams are missing key cogs.  The Rockets are without center Dwight Howard, who’s expected to miss several more weeks due to a knee injury, while Blake Griffin is still out with a staph infection.. because he’s disgusting.  The key matchup for this game will be between Harden and Matt Barnes. Barnes will most likely be assigned to Harden given he’s the Clippers’ best perimeter defender.  It will be interesting to see how Harden decides to play this game and if he will look to find his shooters on the perimeter given that some double-teams will be thrown his way.  Harden is an exceptional playmaker, and it will be up to Barnes to slow him down.  The Clippers have won four straight before losing to Memphis on Monday night 90-87, while the Rockets are coming off two straight wins over Toronto and Minnesota.  My money’s on Houston tonight, or rather on Harden.

For my next NBA pick, I have the Phoenix Suns (-5) over the Denver Nuggets.  Though both teams have continued to struggle since shipping out key players at the trade deadline, Denver (20-36) has dropped 16 of 18 to fall out of the playoff picture entirely, all the while facing its longest home losing streak in 17 years.  Sidenote: the only longer single-season home losing streak in franchise history was an 11-game slide in 1997-98.  The Suns have had a winning record every day since reaching 15-14 on December 21, holding a two-game lead for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference before falling to the 10th spot on January 30.  They’ve allowed an average of 116.3 points in their last four games, and will most definitely benefit from facing the Nuggets– a team who’s been terrible offensively since its roster overhaul with an average of 85.7 points on 34.9 percent shooting.  The Nuggets are coming off their most lopsided home loss of the season, 110-82 to Brooklyn on Tuesday and own a mere two victories in their last 18.  This is an interesting match-up because it speaks to the future (or lack thereof) for Phoenix.  If the Suns don’t run Denver out of the gym, excuse-makers will use words like “young,” “recent trades,” “lack of chemistry” and “didn’t go our way.”  Another pathetic first half means none of those are the problem.  If Denver scores over 50 points in the first half, you’ll know the Suns aren’t in a re-build because nothing was built to actually build on.  Got that?

For my NCAA picks, I have Iowa (-11) over Illinois and Davidson (+3) over Rhode island.  Iowa has won four of its past six games with an average winning margin of 24 points while Illinois lost back to back games to Michigan State and Wisconsin.  Iowa senior Aaron White had 18 points in a 74-46 win at Nebraska on Sunday, moving into fifth on Iowa’s career scoring list, needing only eight more rebounds to crack the top five all-time in that category as well.  The Davidson Wildcats grabbed a 76-57 win over the Fordham Rams on Saturday, behind an 18-point effort from Brian Sullivan at Belk Arena.  Davidson currently sits at 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games going into this matchup.

For my Streak pick, I have the Indiana Hoosiers over the Northwestern Wildcats straight across.

Best of luck to all your bettors out there, and remember… March Madness is only 18 days away!!!

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1

Let’s do this!

Play Ball.

Good Morning!!!  Apologies for going on sabbatical.  Before we get started on bets, let’s talk trades for a hot minute.  The NBA trade deadline ended yesterday in a 20-minute flurry that left the Twittersphere, journalists, and even some of the players confused about what exactly what was going on.  In total, 11 trades went down, and several teams decided to part ways with integral players, drastically shaking up the playoff race in both conferences.  Highlights?  Goran Dragic and Reggie Jackson got their wishes, moving to the Heat and Pistons respectively.  Kevin Garnett pulled a Lebron and returned home to the Timberwolves, sending Thaddeus Young to the Brooklyn Nets.  The Milwaukee Bucks sent Brandon Knight to the Suns but got back Michael Carter-Williams from Philadelphia, giving the Sixers a nice, shiny draft pick in return.  All in all, it was a pretty productive day… especially for the Thunder, who acquired Enes Kanter and Steve Novak from the Jazz and D.J. Augustin and Kyle Singler from the Pistons.  Turn those frowns upside down boys…

For my NBA bets tonight, I’m coming back strong with Atlanta (-5.5) over Toronto and Golden State (-7.5) over San Antonio.  The All-Star break wasn’t much of a rest for the Hawks, with four out of five of their starters on the Eastern Conference roster in New York.  Luckily Kyle Korver still leads the NBA in three-point shooting percentage, with an impressive 52.3 percent mark from behind the arc.  The Hawks have dominated the league this entire year and are looking to use their 6.5 game advantage to spur them into the playoffs as the top seed.  It all starts tonight with a matchup against the No. 2 Toronto Raptors– one of the few teams in the NBA who, like the Hawks, didn’t do much at the trade deadline.  The Raptors are currently sitting with a franchise-best record of 36-17 and are using Kyle Lowry to shape themselves into one of the best teams in the league.  Lowry comes into this game leading the team with 18.6 points per game, 7.2 assists, and 1.6 steals.  Toronto is one of the few teams who’ve claimed success against the Hawks this season, and they currently lead the series 2-1.  This is the last time these two teams will face each other this year, barring a series in the playoffs– so if the Hawks actually think they are the best team in the East (and they should) they’ll have to prove it tonight in Philip’s Arena.

Golden State (42-9) owns the league’s best record and is on pace for a franchise record in wins, holding a four-game edge over second-place Memphis in the Western Conference.  Curry, with 23.6 points and 7.9 assists per game, is one of the top MVP candidates, while Thompson has elevated his play with career highs of 22.1 points per game and a 44.0 three-point percentage.  Tonight, they’ll be trying to avenge one of their two home losses, falling 113-100 to San Antonio on Nov. 11 despite shooting 54.3 percent.  Thompson scored 29 while Curry had 16 points on 7-of-18 shooting.  Curry is 17 of 46 (37.0 percent) in his last three meetings and Golden State is 2-22 in the series since April 1, 2008.  Tony Parker matched a season high with 28 points and has averaged 21.2 while shooting 52.1 percent over his last six meetings, though it’s unclear if he’ll play on the second night of back-to-back road games.  He’s played in eight of a possible 15 while Tim Duncan has played 10.  Lucky for the Dubs, the Spurs are coming off a 115-119 loss to the Clippers last night where Kawhi Leonard went 1 for 11.  This is no playoff game, but there’s a very good chance that it’s some sort of playoff preview– and it’s safe to assume that neither team will look past it.

I’m passing on NCAA bets tonight in lieu of doing some research for my upcoming March Madness bracket attack (23 DAYS!!!).  For my Streak pick, I have Houston over Dallas straight across.  Best of luck to all you bettors out there, and remember… anything is possible if you believe in yourself (or if you’re Russell Westbrook).  Let’s do this!

http://youtu.be/Itq4v3JMbt8

Born This Way.

Happy Hump Day!  I’m excited to report that my betting slump is finally over (for now).  Let’s just pretend like Wake Forest didn’t build up a 20-point lead to end up holding off the Wolfpack by a mere four last night (seriously, WOW).  Also, Devin + Cody forever.  Too soon??

For tonight’s NBA picks, I have Atlanta (-6) over Washington and Memphis (-7) over Utah.  Even though Atlanta’s 19-game winning streak came to a screeching halt at the hands of Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans Monday night, the Hawks remain seven games clear of the field as the best team in the Eastern Conference.  The Wizards, meanwhile, are smack in the middle of a four-team trailing pack separated by just three games.  But no matter where they finish in the playoff chase, they know the road to the NBA Finals most likely goes through Atlanta.  The Wizards need no reminder of just how good the Hawks are.  The last time Washington paid a visit to Philips Arena, the Wiz were on a three-game winning streak and had won 12 of 17.  The Hawks grabbed them by the ear and led them out of the gym laughing, hanging a 31-point defeat on their next-closest division competitor.  It was Washington’s biggest loss of the season.  Starting with that defeat, the Wizards have hit a bit of a snag.  While they beat San Antonio and swiped a nice road win at Chicago, they currently sit at 6-7 in their last 13 games, traveling south tonight on a three-game losing skid.  Meanwhile, the Hawks don’t have a single player in the top 15 in the league in Estimated Wins Added — an NBA version of baseball’s WAR.  But all three of their All-Stars rank in the top 30, with five of their players averaging between 11.6 and 17.2 points per game.  As a team, they have the sixth-highest scoring offense, facilitated by the second-highest assist total, and their defense ranks third in the league.  In essence, the Hawks are doing everything well and nothing spectacularly– and it’s working.

The Memphis Grizzlies are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into the All-Star Break.  A season-long seven-game winning streak has had more moments of dominance than gut-wrenching wins with the most recent victory, a 102-101 close call against the Phoenix Suns being the only exception.  In the seven-game streak, the Grizzlies have won by double digits in four of those seven games, including an 18-point win over the Philadelphia 76ers and 30-point victory over the Denver Nuggets.  They are doing it all with defense, sporting a 90 defensive efficiency over the seven-game span and only allowing more than 90 points to be scored against them once beyond the seven games.  Soo… a trip to see the Jazz should be a piece of cake, right?  Maybe not.  Utah is not playing as poorly as their record shows.  Gordon Hayward is having an excellent season and the Jazz’s trio of bigs (Favors, Kanter & Rudy Gobert) have led Utah to being 2nd in the league in rebound rates.  As this young team becomes more comfortable in coach Quin Snyder’s system, they should continue to improve more and more.  Let’s not forget that they defeated the Warriors at home this past Friday night and lost to the Trail Blazers in Portland by only one point on Tuesday.  They can play.  Here’s hoping just not as well as Memphis.

All bets aside, I’m looking forward to watching Chicago at Houston later.  The Houston Rockets have done well without Dwight Howard during his various absences this season, though signs of trouble bubbled up in their most recent defeat.  As they prepare to be without their center for the foreseeable future, the Rockets may again face interior struggles Wednesday night against Pau Gasol and the Chicago Bulls.  Howard has been dealing with knee trouble most of the season, but the Rockets (33-15) are 11-5 in games he’s missed and won three straight in his absence Jan. 23-28.  That streak came to an abrupt halt Saturday in a 114-101 loss at Detroit in which Piston’s big men Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond combined for 30 points and 28 rebounds.  I know better than to bet on this game, but Chicago is quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to watch (I think I just threw up a little).  Also, this..

For my NCAA picks, I have Davidson (-7.5) over St. Bonaventure and Georgia Tech (+17.5) over Duke.  Excluding a 52-28 loss to Virginia on Jan. 22, Georgia Tech’s other conference losses have all been by seven points or fewer.  Duke should most definitely win this game but likely won’t clear the spread.  For my Streak pick, I have Detroit over Indiana straight.

And yes, I am betting on Golden State (-9.5) against Dallas tonight.  Curry is on fire, per usual, and is the only player in the league averaging at least 20.0 points and 8.0 assists, registering 23.0 and 8.2, respectively. He hit his scoring average on Tuesday while dishing out nine assists in 28 minutes — five fewer than his season average.  The All-Star guard scored 29 points to lead Golden State to a 105-98 win at Dallas on Dec. 13, extending the Warriors’ winning streak in the series to four games.  And in case you were wondering when Curry got to be such a baller, the answer is always…

Best of luck to all you bettors out there… and remember, the weekend is only 2 days away!!!

March Madness is only 39.  But you already knew that..

Let’s do this!